San Antonio Express-News - January 3, 2010
By Jan Jarboe Russell
By the end of the new decade, now only three days young, the demographics of the new Texas will look a lot like San Antonio: A significant and powerful number of Texans will be Latino.
But for now, as the lineup for the 2010 statewide ballot proves, Republicans hold sway, and probably will until midway through the decade. And San Antonio's influence on state politics is marginal.
Consider the governor's race. The Republicans face the most vicious primary in decades with Gov. Rick Perry and U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in an old-school clash of titans.
The San Antonio angle is far removed.
Former Houston Mayor Bill White, who's running for governor as a Democrat, grew up here, the son of schoolteachers who taught at Lee, Edison and Cole high schools. By birthright at least, White has a San Antonio toehold.
It's the down-ballot races that have statewide Democratic leaders concerned because of the alarming absence of any Latino candidates.
For lieutenant governor, former Travis County District Attorney Ronnie Earle is running. For attorney general, Houston lawyer Barbara Ann Radnofsky. For agriculture commissioner, Kinky Friedman. And for land commissioner, Bill Burton.
Linda Chavez-Thompson, the San Antonio-based labor leader, is rumored to be considering a run for lieutenant governor in the Democratic primary. She has until Monday —the filing deadline — to decide.
Early last summer, party leaders pressed state Sen. Leticia Van de Putte to run for governor. She said no, citing as her reason not wanting to put her family through a bruising race against Perry. And so they pressed for lieutenant governor.
Van de Putte has a safe Senate seat until 2012, when she's up for re-election. The only thing she'd have to lose by running for lieutenant governor is that if she lost to Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst — as she likely would — she'd likely find her Senate office at the Capitol moved to Kyle or Buda.
Van de Putte's decision to sit tight in the Senate is understandable. The demographics just aren't there yet — only 37 percent of Texans are Latino. To win, a Latino candidate will need a large war chest, strong cross-over appeal among Anglos and a statewide network.
In some ways, 2010 is an annunciation year for the new generation of Latino leaders in San Antonio — they hear the call but are waiting for the right moment. Many, including state Rep. Mike Villarreal, the Castro twins — particularly state Rep. Joaquin Castro — were lobbied to run but decided to sit tight.
Villarreal briefly considered running for comptroller against Susan Combs but decided to run for re-election instead, help White in his statewide race for governor and look at his own options four years from now.
He made the right choice — Combs is competent and popular. She would be difficult to beat in any year.
For now, San Antonio's largest statewide influence comes from local Republicans, particularly Speaker of the House Joe Straus, who likely will be re-elected and continue to exercise powerful control.
The decision last week by state Rep. Frank Corte Jr. to step down from his Republican district clears the way for ex-County Commissioner Lyle Larson to run and likely win.
Right now, Texas does not look like it's racing into a new future. But change is coming. By 2020, the Democratic Party's strong Latino farm team — most of them with headquarters in San Antonio — will be ready for statewide play.
jrussell@express-news.net